似真性、概然性与似真推理

Plausibility,Probability and Plausible Reasoning

似真推理是一种以事物的表象为基础的认知推理,它给予人们表面理由去相信某个命题似然为真。然而,似真推理并不是无根基的,命题的似真性通常有可靠的和稳定的来源所支持。世界模型的方法能够用于解释命题如何从知识或信念确信过程中获得似真性。由于似真性与概然性不同,因而似真推理不能等同于概率推理。似真推理不只是可废止推理,它适用于解释任意推理形式并且要求结论或至少一个前提是似真的。似真推理本质上并不是与演绎推理和归纳推理相并列的第三种推理,而是一种独立的新推理类型。

Plausible reasoning is a kind of cognitive reasoning with the basis of appearance of objects,it gives people facie reasons to believe that some proposition is plausible. However,this would not mean that plausible reasoning is rootless,the plausibility of a proposition is generally supported by reliable and solid sources. World model can be applied to explain that how a proposition get plausibility in the progress of convincing knowledge and belief.Plausibility is different from probability,so plausible reasoning should not be equal to probabilistic reasoning. Plausible reasoning is not only defeasible reasoning,it is also suitable to explain any reasoning form and requires that the conclusion or at least one of premises must be plausible. Essentially,plausible reasoning is not in parallel to deductive reasoning and inductive reasoning as a third kind of reasoning,but a newly separated type of reasoning.