沪昆高速铁路对江西省经济影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Shanghai-Kunming High-Speed Railway on the Economy of Jiangxi Province

为评价沪昆高速铁路对江西省经济与社会发展多方面的影响,在分析沪昆高速铁路对江西经济影响机理的基础上,选取区域运输能力、区域可达性、区域经济发展、区域产业结构和区域就业5项指标,结合灰色预测与多元线性回归模型,测算2014年、2015年"无"沪昆高速铁路情况下江西省各项经济发展指标值,并与当年实际值进行比较。结果表明:沪昆高速铁路增强了江西省的运输能力,提高了区域可达性,促进了经济总量的增长,推动了产业结构的优化,对江西省就业人员数量的增加具有积极作用,同时从发展高速铁路经济带、优化区域产业布局和增强旅游优势3方面提出发展江西高速铁路经济对策,以最大限度地释放高速铁路正效应。

Based on the analysis of the impact mechanism, the five indicators including regional transportation capability, regional accessibility, regional economic development, regional industrial structure and regional employment are taken into accounts to judge the impact of ShanghaiKunming high-speed railway on the society and economy of Jiangxi province. Combined with gray prediction model and multiple linear regression model, the economic development of Jiangxi province in 2014 and 2015 without Shanghai-Kunming high-speed railway is figured out and compared with the actual value. It shows that the Shanghai-Kunming high-speed railway is beneficial to transportation capability, regional accessibility, regional economic aggregate, regional industrial structure and regional employment of Jiangxi province. The solution for developing high-speed economy in Jiangxi province is put forward in terms of developing high-speed railway economy belt, perfecting regional industry distribution and enhancing travel advantages, so as to ensure the utmost positive effect of the high-speed railway.