合肥市2014～2016年大气污染物PM_(2.5)对居民循环系统疾病死亡效应的时间序列分析

Time series analysis in ambient PM_(2.5) pollution and daily cardiovascular mortality in Hefei city during 2014 to 2016

目的评估合肥市2014～2016年PM_(2.5)日均浓度对循环系统疾病死亡效应的影响。方法从合肥市气象局、环保局获得2014～2016年气象、环保资料,从中国疾病预防控制中心的死因监测系统获取人群死亡资料。采用基于Poisson回归的广义线性模型控制时间趋势、温度、相对湿度、星期几效应、法定节假日等因素,分析污染物PM_(2.5)浓度对因循环系统疾病死亡效应,包含当日(lag0)、滞后(lag1～lag5)和累积滞后(lag01～lag05)效应;分析了老年人组(≥60岁)和非老年人组(<60岁)间PM_(2.5)浓度与循环系统疾病死亡人数的影响,同时分析引入SO_2、NO_2、O_3污染物后,对PM_(2.5)浓度与循环系统疾病死亡人数效应的影响。结果 PM_(2.5)浓度对因循环系统疾病总死亡人数有显著影响,其中对当日(lag0)和累积滞后5 d(lag05)影响最大,lag0超额死亡危险风险(ER)为0. 53%(95%CI:0. 09%～0. 98%),lag05的ER为1. 01%(95%CI:0. 33%～1. 70%)。在老年人组(≥60岁)中,PM_(2.5)浓度对因循环系统疾病总死亡人数的效应更加显著,也是对lag0和lag05影响最大,lag0的ER为0. 57%(95%CI:0.11%～1. 03%); lag05的ER为1. 04%(95%CI:0. 33%～1. 76%)。而在非老年人(年龄<60岁)人群中,PM_(2.5)浓度对因循环系统疾病总死亡人数影响无统计学意义。在多污染物模型分析中,加入污染物SO_2、NO_2后,发现均可减弱PM_(2.5)对循环系统疾病死亡人群的影响,效应无统计学意义。结论 2014～2016年PM_(2.5)污染物能增加合肥地区循环系统疾病死亡人数,且在老年人中效应更显著。

Objective To evaluate the effects of ambient PM2.5 pollution on mortality of circulatory diseases in Hefei City from 2014 to 2016. Methods Data on environmental factors and meteorological factors from January 1,2014 to December 31,2016 was obtained from the local municipal environmental monitoring center and meteorology bureau of Hefei City,respectively. Data on daily mortality in the same period was obtained from the Death Reporting Monitoring Network system. Controlling temporal trends,temperature, relative humidity,day of week,weekend,holidays andother factors,time-series analysis in generalized linear model which based on Poisson regression was applied to evaluate the association between air pollution and daily cardiovascular mortality. Results There was significant influence of increasing PM2.5 concentration on the mortality of circulatory diseases. The strongest effect was the lag0 day and lag05 day,the excess risk（ ER） of death risk was 0. 53%（ 95% CI： 0. 09%-0. 98%） in the lag0 day and 1. 01%（ 95% CI：0. 33%-1. 70%） in lag05 day. By increasing 10 g/m3 of PM2.5 concentration,the mortality rate of circulatory diseases increased 0. 53% and 1. 01%,respectively. In the elder group（ age≥60）,the effect was stronger（ lag0： ER = 0. 57%,95% CI： 0. 11%-1. 03%; lag05： ER = 1. 04%,95% CI： 0. 33%-1. 76%）,but there was no significant effect in the non-elder group（ age〈 60）. In the multi-pollution model,by adding SO2 or NO2,the effect of the model was reduced,and by adding O3,there was no significant effect in the model. Conclusion From 2014 to 2016,air pollution had a significant impact on the mortality of circulatory diseases in Hefei City. High ambient PM2.5 concentration can increase the number of mortality of circulatory diseases in Hefei City,and in the elder group,the effect was stronger.