2013～2015年济南市大气污染物SO_2和NO_2对居民心血管疾病应急呼叫事件影响的急性效应

Acute effects of air pollutants SO_2 and NO_2 on emergency calls events for cardiovascular disease during 2013-2015 in Jinan City,China

目的定量分析济南市大气污染物SO_2和NO_2对居民心血管疾病应急呼叫事件的急性影响。方法描述性分析2013～2015年济南市逐日气象、空气污染物和居民心血管疾病应急呼叫事件资料。采用基于Quasi-Poisson回归的广义相加模型分别进行SO_2、NO_2与逐日居民心血管疾病应急呼叫事件的单污染物模型、滞后效应(lag1～lag7)和累积滞后效应(lag01～lag07)分析。计算污染物浓度每升高10μg/m^3,居民心血管疾病应急呼叫事件风险增加的超额危险度及95%置信区间(95%CI)。结果 2013～2015年济南市逐日SO_2、NO_2浓度水平及居民心血管疾病应急呼叫事件数的均值分别为73μg/m^3、55μg/m^3及17人。SO_2、NO_2浓度每升高10μg/m^3,当日(lag0)居民心血管疾病应急呼叫事件风险可分别增加0. 41%(95%CI:0. 10%～0. 72%)和0. 99%(95%CI:0.27%～1. 71%),同时存在显著的累积滞后效应。结论济南市大气污染物SO_2、NO_2均对居民心血管疾病应急呼叫事件风险存在急性效应。

Objectives To evaluate the acute effects of air pollutants（ SO2 and NO2） on the emergency callings（ EC）for cardiovascular disease in Jinan City,China. Methods Daily meteorological,air pollutants and EC data between2013 and 2015 were collected for a descriptive analysis. A generalized additive model based on Quasi-Poisson regression was used to estimate the acute effects of each pollutant and EC. The lag pattern of lag days（ lag1-lag7） and moving average effect（ lag01-lag07） were explored. The excess risk of EC and 95% confidence interval（ 95% CI） was calculated with an increase of 10 μg/m3 in concentrations of SO2 and NO2,separately. Results The average of daily SO2 and NO2 concentrations and EC number were 73 μg/m3,55 μg/m3 and 17 callings per day,respectively. Per 10 μg/m^3 increase in concentrations of SO2 and NO2,at lag0,the EC could rise 0. 41%（ 95% CI： 0. 10%-0. 72%） and 0. 99%（ 95% CI： 0. 27%-1. 71%）,respectively. Conclusion An obvious association is found in the acute effects of SO2 and NO2 to the emergency callings for cardiovascular disease in Jinan City,China.