福建省经济增长与产业结构关系实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Relation Between the Economy Growth in Fujian Province and the Industry Structure

合理的产业结构能够促进经济增长,经济的增长又会导致产业结构发生变动。文章通过协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,验证福建省产业结构与经济增长存在长期、稳定的因果关系。选取福建省三次产业产值和生产总值为研究变量,采用协整与误差修正模型,构建福建省生产总值和三次产业产值长期的协整模型和短期的误差修正模型,得出三个产业对生产总值的贡献。在此基础上提出发展第三产业的重要性,以及三个产业的结构调整策略。

A reasonable industiT structure will promote economic growth which may lead the structural change of industry. With co-integration test and Granger causality test, the long term and stable cause-effect relation between Fujian province industry structure and economy growth is computed. Taking the three-time production value and the gross value of production in Fujian province as the variable, the long term cointegration model and short term error correction model are developed, based on which the significance of developing the third industiT is concluded with the strategies for adjustment.