我国职工基本养老保险收支改善对策研究——基于全面二孩政策下人口年龄结构的视角

Study on Income and Expenditure Improvement Countermeasures of Basic Old-Age Insurance for Employees in China——Based on the Perspective of Population Age Structure under the Comprehensive Two Children Policy

在实施全面二孩政策的背景下,本文预测了2010—2044年全国人口发展趋势和老年抚养比的变化趋势。数据显示,2020—2044年我国人口老龄化形势越来越严峻,全国被抚养老年人口与劳动年龄人口之比快速增大。为了实现职工基本养老保险基金长期收支平衡,必须多管齐下:提高女性退休年龄,划转部分国有资本充实社保基金,继续给予职工基本养老保险财政补助,系统推进企业职工基本养老保险基金中央调剂制度,以及考虑把按月享受基本养老金的最低累计缴费年限由15年提高到20年。

In the context of the implementation of the comprehensive two children policy, this paper predicts the trend of population development and elderly dependency ratio in China between 2020 and 2044. The data shows the situation of China＇s population aging from is becoming more and more severe, and the ratio of the country＇s aged population to the working age population is increasing rapidly. In order to realize the long - term balance of income and expenditure of the basic old - age insurance fund for employees, it is necessary to extend the retirement age for women, transfer some state - owned capital to the social security fund, continue to grant the financial subsidy for the basic old - age insurance of employees, and promote central adjustment system of basic old - age insurance fund of employees. Raising the payment years of minimum cumulative monthly contribution to basic pension from 15 years to 20 years could be considered.