基于面板门槛模型的中国农村扶贫负所得税机制研究

Research on the Negative Income Tax Mechanism of Rural Poverty Alleviation in China Based on Panel Threshold Model

本文通过建立负所得税制度来解决当前扶贫过程中"激励"与"普惠"两难的问题。基于2000—2011年中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)数据,文章构建了政府财政补贴对中国农村劳动力劳动意愿影响的面板门槛模型,测算出当补贴金额为人均收入的1. 2倍时,劳动者的劳动意愿达到门槛值,并以此作为负所得税率区间设计的基准,分析了负所得税制对贫困者福利的改善情况。对此,本文提出渐进式推进、多维贫困测度、负所得税与现有保障制度衔接、加快立法进程等对策。

This paper establishes negative income tax system to solve the dilemma of ＂ Incentive＂ and Inclusive＂ in the current poverty alleviation process, and establishes a panel threshold model to measure the impact of government financial subsidies on Chinag rural labor force by using the data of CHNS from 2000 to 2011. When the subsidy amount is 1.2 times of the per capita income ,the labor forceg willingness reaches the threshold value As a benchmark for the negative income tax rate interval analysis, the paper analyzes the improvement of the negative income tax system to the welfare of the poor. Finally, this paper puts forward the countermeasures of gradual advancement,multi - dimensional poverty measure, the convergence of negative income tax and existing security system, and speeding up the legislative process.