基于电网结构和状态的连锁故障预测与安全防御

Cascading failure forecasting and security defense to power grid based on the running state and structure

综合分析电网拓扑结构和运行特性,提出了一种新的预测连锁故障发展的方法。在系统发生N-k(k=0,1,2,…)级故障后,通过保护措施使具有较高综合脆弱性指标的支路保持安全运行,能够提高电力系统的稳定能力,防御连锁故障发生。利用IEEE-57母线系统的实例分析,验证了该方法的合理性及有效性,证明本文方法预测出的连锁模式为系统中高风险的连锁故障序列,对具有较高综合脆弱性指标的支路进行保护,能够有效延缓甚至避免连锁故障的发生和发展。

A new method of predicting the power system cascading fault is proposed,which is based on the topology and operation characteristics of the grid. The protective measures will ensure the normal operation of some branches of the system which have higher comprehensive vulnerability index after the N-k（ k = 0,1,2,…） level fault occurs. Thus the stability of the electric system can be improved and the cascading failure can be prevented. The proposed method is verified through the case study of the Generatrix IEEE-57. The study also proves the forecasted cascading model being a high-risk cascading failure sequence in the system. Moreover,this study points out that the protection for the branches which have higher comprehensive vulnerability index could prevent the cascading failure.