年报风险信息披露与分析师跟随

Risk Information Disclosure in Annual Report and Analysts' Following

年度风险信息既可能提高信息质量进而对分析师跟随产生积极影响,又可能因增加分析师的风险感知进而对分析师跟随产生消极影响。本文通过文本分析法量化年报风险信息,探讨其对分析师跟随的影响。数据表明:风险信息披露频率越高,分析师跟随越少,预测分歧度更小,说明我国年报风险信息异质性较弱,有助于改善一般分析师的预测行为。本文研究结论支持了风险信息披露的信息观,有助于丰富信息披露文献以及分析师预测文献。

Texual risk information disclosure in annual reports is likely to improve the quality of information and has a positive impact on the behavior of analysts＇ earnings forecasts, besides, it may also increase analysts＇ risk perception and then have a negative impact on the behavior of analysts＇ earnings forecasts. This paper quantifies the risk information disclosure by the method of textual analysis and examines the effect of the risk disclosure on the behavior of sell-side financial analysts. The conclusions from firm-level empirical studies are as tollows ： increases in risk disclosures are associated with fewer analysts following and tewer analysts dispersion. The findings of this paper support the view that risk disclosure improves the information disclosure environment, and help to enrich the emerging risk disclosure literatures and analyst literatures.