典型欠发达民族地区的人口迁移特征与人力资本变迁——基于大理的实证

The Facts of Demographic Changes and Human Capital Flows in A Stylized Ethnic Underdevelopment Region—— Empirical Evidences from Dali

以欠发达民族地区的人口迁移与人力资本为背景,紧密结合大理白族自治州第六次人口普查的相关数据,对跨州整体迁移人口情况,跨州整体迁入人口的主要区域、年龄与性别特征,跨州迁入人口的来源与去向,跨州迁入人口的常住期限与迁移因素等人口迁移的关键问题进行分析后发现:大理州仍然是一个人口迁移净流出地区,总体流出的人力资源和人力资本也大于流入水平;其迁入人口的来源地主要集中在中部及临近省份,迁入人口的性别差异较大且以男性为主,迁入人口的人力资本较低,迁入因素主要以经济活动为主、家庭与学习因素次之;无论从何视角,大理市都是州内迁移活动最活跃的地区。总体而言,从吸引人口的规模与质量和输出人口的规模和质量而言,以大理州为代表的少数民族地区在全国人口迁移模式中仍处于相当不利的劣势地位。

This study focuses on demographic changes and human capital flows and patterns in a stylized ethnic underdevelopment region, utilizing the sixth census survey data from Dali prefecture as an example. It analyzed the regional distribution, age and sex, cross-regional population flows of Dali prefecture, and found out that： as a typical multi-ethnic region, Dali has experienced constantly negative net flows of both population and human capital, and the primary driving forces of this flow pattern are of econonfic, fanfily and educational dimensions. Overall, in terms of both the scale and size of the demographic changes in Dali, we can find that underdeveloped ethnic regions face extremely unfavorable conditions in the competition of labor force and human capital across the nation.