金融发展、能源消费与经济增长——基于系统耦合模型的实证分析

Financial Development,Energy Consumption and Economic Growth——An Empirical Analysis Based on System Coupling Model

利用三系统耦合模型,基于中国省域2001—2016年面板数据,测算金融发展、能源消费与经济增长三系统综合指数及耦合水平,分析三系统耦合关系的动态演化和空间差异特征。研究结果显示,全国金融发展水平较为平稳,呈逐渐上升态势;能源消费发展较为缓慢;经济增长出现了明显波动,但整体呈现快速增长态势。此外,三系统综合指数均呈现明显的区域差异,具体表现为东高西低。在耦合发展水平上,中国三系统耦合水平呈现稳步增长态势,但耦合水平相对较低,仅为初级协调发展阶段。分省域来看,当前中国绝大部分省份已处于正向耦合阶段,但其中处于勉强协调发展阶段的省份依然较多,同时有一小部分省份仍处于濒临失调衰退阶段,主要集中于整体耦合水平较低的西部地区,且这主要是由于西部地区三系统发展水平普遍较低,其中金融发展和经济增长水平尤为突出。

This paper uses the three-system coupling model to measure the three-system comprehensive index and the coupling level of financial development, energy consumption and economic growth based on the provincial panel data from 2001 to 2016 in China, then analyzes the dynamic evolution and spatial difference of the three-system coupling relationship. The research results show that the national financial development level is relatively stable, showing a gradual upward trend. The development of energy consumption is relatively slow. There have been significant fluctuations in economic growth, but overall economic growth is showing a trend of rapid growth. In addition, the comprehensive index of the three-system shows obvious regional differences, which is gradually reduced from east to west. China＇s three-system coupling level presents a steady growth trend, but the coupling level is relatively low, which is in the stage of primary coordinated development. In the provincial level, most of the provinces in China are in the stage of positive coupling, but there are still many provinces in the stage of barely coordinated development. At the same time, a small number of provinces are still on the verge of disorder and recession, mainly concentrated in western region whose overall coupling level is low, this is mainly due to the generally low level of development of the three-system in western region, especially the level of financial development and economic growth.