长江中游城市群旅游经济增长空间关联性分析

Spatial Correlation Analysis on Tourism Economic Growth of Urban Agglomerations in the Midstream of the Yangtze River

文章收集2002—2016年长江中游城市群的相关数据,利用格兰杰因果关系检验、社会网络分析法以及引力模型,对长江中游城市群旅游经济增长空间关联性进行分析,结果发现:(1)整个网络的关联程度良好,但网络密度较低,联系强度较弱,整体网络相对较为分散,各城市间旅游经济联系还有待加强;(2)武汉城市群呈现出多极发展,城市内部发展不均衡,环鄱阳湖城市群整体呈现出均衡发展但龙头城市作用较弱的局面,环长株潭城市群对其他两个城市群的溢出作用明显,环鄱阳湖城市群的受益作用比较明显,三个城市群间的旅游经济联系相对较弱;(3)旅游总人数、旅游资源丰度、交通距离与地区生产总值是影响长江中游城市群旅游经济联系的四个重要因素,旅游客源市场、资源丰度越相近,经济发展联系越密切,空间距离越小,两城市间的旅游经济增长的联系越密切。

By collecting relevant data of the Urban Agglomeration in the Midstream of the Yangtze River from 2002 to 2016, this essay carries out an analysis of the spatial correlation of tourism economic growth in Urban Agglomeration in the Midstream of the Yangtze River with the employment of Granger causality test, social network analysis, and gravitation model. The results show that： ① Firstly, although the whole network is well connected, the network density is low with the weak connection intensity. The whole network is relatively scattered, so that the tourism economic links among cities need to be strengthened. ② Secondly, the urban agglomerations in Wuhan show a multi polar development with unbalanced development in the cities. The overall urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake presents a balanced development but the role of leading cities is weak. The spillover effect of the Urban Agglomeration around Chang sha, Zhu zhou, and Xiangtan is obvious to the other two urban agglomerations. The benefit effect of the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake is also obvious, but the tourism economic ties between the three urban agglomerations are weak. ③ At last, the total number of tourists.abundance of tourism resources, traffic distance, and GDP are the four important factors that affect the tourism economic relations of Urban Agglomeration in the Midstream of the Yangtze River. The link associating the two cities＇ economic growth becomes stronger with the more similar model of tourist market and the abundance of resources of the two cities. The closer the spatial distance is, the closer the association of tourism economic growth between the two cities is. ）