基于模糊数的事件树法在寒区隧道冻害风险分析中的应用

Application of Fault Tree Analysis Method in Risk Analysis of Freezing Damage in Tunnels of Cold Regions Based on Fuzzy Numbers

内蒙古大准铁路由于建造年代早,当时技术不成熟,沿线很多隧道出现了冻害问题。为了保证铁路安全运营,应有效地评估和治理隧道冻害。采用基于模糊数的事件树法,在对大准铁路沿线隧道冻害进行统计分析的基础上,建立了隧道冻害事件树,并定量计算了隧道冻害不同后果事件发生的概率,分析了不同因素对隧道冻害发展的影响以及各种冻害形式的内在联系,验证了基于模糊数的事件树分析法在隧道冻害风险分析中的有效性,对隧道正常运营的风险评估具有重要的意义。

Due to the early construction of the Da Zhun Railway and immature technology,there are numer ous disease problems along the tunnel. For the safety of the railway daily operations, tunnel diseases should be effectively evaluated and controlled. Based on the statistics of freezing damage in the tunnels along the Da Zhun Railway,this paper adopts the fault tree analysis method based on fuzzy numbers to build a tunnel frost damage fault tree and quatitatively calculates the probability of different consequences of events. Then the paper analyzes the influence of different factors on the development of the freezing damage in tunnel and the internal connections of various disease forms. Finally the case study verifies the effectiveness of the fault tree analysis method based on fuzzy numbers in the risk analysis of freezing damage,and it has signifi cance for the risk assessment of the normal operation of the tunnel.