基于MaxEnt模型不同气候变化情景下的豆梨潜在地理分布

Potential geographical distribution of Pyrus calleryana under different climate change scenarios based on the MaxEnt model

针对豆梨的原生境保护和资源利用问题,本研究基于豆梨全球236个分布点和19个环境因子,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(GIS)预测了豆梨在不同气候条件下的全球生态适宜区.结果表明:豆梨的生态适宜区主要集中在北美洲、亚洲等地区,面积共约1.6×10~7km^2.其中,中国生态适宜度较高的地区主要分布在湖南省、湖北省、安徽省、江西省、江苏省、浙江省、福建省等地.影响豆梨地理分布的主要气候因子是年平均气温和年降水量,气温季节性变化次之.由模型预测可知,在不同的气候背景下,豆梨适宜生境和低适宜生境的面积有所不同.在空间分布上,豆梨适宜生境和低适宜生境的范围和几何中心都由东部向西部地区扩散,北美洲的适宜生境增长较快,而欧洲地区的低适宜生境增长较快.

To resovle the problems of in-situ conservation and resource utilization of Pyrus calleryana,maximum entropy model（MaxEnt） and geographic information system（GIS） were used to predict the global ecological suitable region of P. calleryana in different climate scenarios based on 236 distribution data and 19 ecological factors. The results showed that the ecological suitable regions of P. calleryana were mainly concentrated in North America,Asia and other regions,with a total area of 1.6 × 10^7 km^2. In China,the regions with high ecological suitability were Hunan,Hubei,Anhui,Jiangxi,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Fujian provinces. The main factors affecting the geographical distribution of P. calleryana were mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation,followed by the seasonality of temperature. The model simulations indicated that P. calleryana would have different suitable habitat areas and marginally suitable habitat areas in different climate scenarios. In terms of the spatial distribution of the potential habitat area,both the distributional range and the center of distribution of suitable and marginally suitable habitat area would shift from east to west.The suitable habitat area in North America and marginally suitable habitat areas in Europe would increase rapidly.