我国碳交易价格波动风险预警研究——基于深圳市碳交易市场试点数据的实证检验

The research on early warning mechanism of fluctuation’scarbon trading prise risk in China——Based on Shenzhen carbon trading pilots

碳排放权交易试点的深入发展,为我国碳市场的建立和碳排放权价格的制定提供了宝贵的经验,但碳交易价格波动仍存在很大风险。本文首先运用因子分析的方法确定碳交易价格风险的警兆指标,将深圳市碳排放权交易价格作为警情指标,选取2013年9月-2016年12月的深圳市碳交易的月均价格作为训练数据,构建BP人工神经网络模型;其次,利用2017年2-12月的数据作为测试数据,检验BP人工神经网络模型是否能够有效的预测碳排放权价格波动的风险。结果表明,可以通过BP人工神经网络模型对深圳市碳交易价格波动风险进行预警。

As the developments of carbon trading pilots,the establishment of the carbon market in China has been provided valuable experiences. Shenzhen is the first city to be a carbon pilot in China.Using factors analysis, this paper reveals that indicates are warning indexes about the early warming of carbon trading＇s price rick.The carbon trading＇s prices in Shenzhen are sentiment targets. Some carbon emissions monthly average prices chosen from Shenzhen Exchange,from September 2013 to December2017,are the training data to establish a warming system by BP ANN Model. In order to research on the efficiency of the BP ANN Model, Others are test data, from February 2017 to December 2017.The results show that fluctuation＇s carbon trading price risk can be early warned by BP ANN Model and fluctuation＇s carbon trading price can be predicted.There are some propositions to build an early warming mechanism of carbon trading fluctuation＇s prise risk in China basedon this conclusion.