房贷首付比例对住房市场的动态传导机制研究——基于SVAR模型的政策对比分析

The Dynamic Transmission Mechanism of Down Payment on Housing Market——A Comparative Policy Analysis Based on SVAR Model

近年来,国家出台了一系列房地产调控政策,各地政府房地产调控力度增强,取得了一定成效。本文通过建立结构向量自回归模型（SVAR）进行房地产市场调控政策间的比较分析,检验房贷首付比例政策工具对于房地产市场供求及房价的传导影响。研究结果表明：房贷房贷首付比例工具在调节房价上涨率的效果及持续时间上弱于土地供给工具和利率工具,而土地供给政策和利率政策实际上主要通过调整房地产市场供需达到调控房价的效果。

In recent years, the state has introduced a series of real estate control policies, and local governments have strengthened their real estate regulation and control, and achieved certain results.This paper, based on a SVAR model, empirically tested the dynamic transmission mechanism of land supply, down payment and interest rate on the housing market in Shanghai through the impulse response function. The results show that down payment performs distinctly worse than land supply and interest rate in intensity and persistence. The results also suggest that there is market failure in the housing market in Shanghai, leading to the invalidation of the dynamic transmission mechanism through the adjustment of supply and demand, and that land supply and interest rate work mainly through the adjustment of the unequal market position between the buyers and sellers.