经济增长、天然气缺口与替代能源关系研究——兼析轻烃燃气进口替代战略

Research on the relationship between economic growth,natural gas gap and alternative energy——Analysis of light hydrocarbon gas import substitution strategy

本文基于扩展的C-D函数,选取1997-2016年我国GDP、资本存量、劳动力和能源投入的数据,构建天然气缺口下的产出损失模型。然后,在40%、45%和50%的天然气进口警戒值条件下,定量测算2017-2025年我国天然气缺口出现的年份,分别是2017年,2018年和2019年,并计算出对应的产出损失。最后,综合评估轻烃燃气和天然气的经济环保效益,分析国内轻烃燃气替代进口天然气的市场可行性。

Based on an expanded C-D function, data of China＇s GDP, capital stock, labor and energy from 1997 to 2016 is selected to construct an output loss model impacted by natural gas gap.The years when the natural gas gap arises respectively are 2017,2018 and 2019,under the premise of40%, 45% and 50% import alert of natural gas, and how much the output loss is can also be measured between 2017 and 2025. Finally, light hydrocarbon gas and natural gas are comprehensively compared from the angle of economy and environment in order to analyse the possibility that in the future market, light hydrocarbon gas will replace imported natural gas.