城镇化对房地产需求及房价影响研究——基于珠三角经济区2005-2016年的面板数据

Research on the Influence of Urbanization on Real Estate Demand and Housing Price——Based on panel data of the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone from 2005 to 2016

本文立足于城镇化视角,以珠三角经济区为例,使用2005-2016年的面板数据实证分析了城镇化对房地产市场价格的影响。结果表明：城镇化可以从两个方面影响房地产市场,一是城市人口数量增加带来的住房刚性需求上升;二是受益于城镇化而富裕起来的城市人口所带来的投资投机性住房需求。投资投机性需求推动了房价攀升,而消费性住房需求则有效地抑制了房价上涨。

Based on the perspective of urbanization, this paper takes the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone as an example and uses the panel data from 2005 to 2016 to empirically analyze the impact of urbanization on the real estate market price. The results show that urbanization can affect the real estate market from two aspects. First, the rigid demand for housing brought about by the increase in urban population; second, the demand for investment speculative housing brought about by the urban population that benefits from urbanization. Investment speculative demand has driven up house prices, while consumer housing demand has effectively curbed rising house prices.