修宪公投对土耳其外交政策走向的影响

The Impact of Turkey's Constitutional Referendum on Turkish Foreign Policy

2017年4月16日,土耳其在全国范围内就修宪问题举行了全民公投,公投结果显示修宪阵营以微弱优势获胜,这意味着土耳其将由议会制转变为总统制,这对土耳其的内政外交将产生深远的影响。随着总统权力的扩大,土耳其将更加坚定地奉行独立自主的外交政策。在这种背景下,土耳其加入欧盟的希望将变得更加渺茫,但土耳其会在更加平等的基础上寻求与欧盟合作;为了掌握应对库尔德问题的主动权,土耳其的叙利亚政策将变得更加积极主动;土耳其的地区政策在很大程度上受库尔德问题的牵制,受此影响,在修宪之后土耳其与传统盟友美国的关系会日渐疏远,与在叙利亚内战中掌握主导权的俄罗斯关系会逐渐升温。

After Turkey held a national constitutional referendum on April 16,2017 in which supporters of constitutional changes won by a small margin,the country's parliamentary system will be transformed into a presidential one.This will have far-reaching impact on Turkey's domestic political landscape and its foreign policy.With the expansion of presidential power,Turkey will be more determined in pursuing an independent foreign policy.In this context,although its accession to the European Union(EU)will be less likely,Turkey will seek to cooperate with the EU on a more equal footing.Given its concern over the Kurdish problem,Turkey is likely to adopt a more proactive policy toward Syria,and as a result,it will see strains in relations with its traditional ally,the United States,and improvement in its relationship with Russia which has gained an upper hand in the complex situation in Syria.