基于气象水文耦合的中小河流枯季径流短期预报

Short-term Forecast of Dry Season Runoff of Middle and Small Rivers Based on Meteorological and Hydrological Coupling

开展枯水期径流过程的模拟预报对水资源配置、生态环境需水量的研究、抗旱救灾等十分重要,为延长预见期,以数值天气预报未来7 d预报成果及水文实时观测数据为资料,以中小河流枯季短期径流为研究对象,优选了预报因子,基于二次回归正交旋转设计,探索了气象水文耦合在中小河流枯季径流预报方法。经在南汀河姑老河水文站未来3、5、7 d枯季径流模拟中应用,构建的气象水文耦合的预报模型拟合精度达到甲级,精度较高,效果理想,该方法操作简单,易于实现。

It is very important to carry out the simulation and forecast of dry season runoff processes for water resources allocation,ecological water demand research,drought relief,etc.To extend the foreseen period,this paper uses the 7-day forecast results of the numerical weather forecast and the real-time hydrological observation data as the data.The short-term runoff in the dry season of the middle and small rivers is the research object.Based on the quadratic regression orthogonal rotation design,the meteorological and hydrological coupling forecasting method for the dry season runoff in the middle and small rivers is explored.After being applied to dry season runoff simulation in the next three days,five days,and seven days of the Gulaohe hydrological station of Nantinghe River,the meteorological and hydrological coupling prediction model constructed has achieved a first-class accuracy,high accuracy and ideal results,this method is simple and easy to implement.