基于机会理论的复杂装备系统风险传递GERT研究

Research on risk transfer GERT of complex equipment systems based on opportunity theory

针对复杂装备系统任务活动中风险分析传递类型单一、风险机理分析不全面的问题,构建不确定随机图形评审技术模型。首先,根据复杂装备系统的风险特点,基于机会理论提出了风险度,定义不确定随机矩母函数,结合风险基元、风险流构建了图形评审技术(gragh evaluation review technique,GERT)网络分析模型;然后,改进模型通过基元风险度、系统风险度、风险基元重要度等参数,进一步描述风险传递关系;其次,利用矩估计法处理专家信度,采用改进的量子菌群算法求解极大熵模型,分别求得不确定分布函数和概率密度函数,从而得到矩母函数,计算网络模型的参数。最后,选取某型战机执行眼镜蛇机动任务为例,定量评估飞行风险,分析风险机理,验证模型的有效性。

To solve the problems of the single type of risk transfer and incomplete analysis of risk mechanism when performing tasks in complex equipment systems,an uncertain random graph review technical model is constructed.Firstly,based on the characteristics of the complex equipment system and the opportunity theory,the risk degree and the uncertainty random momentum function are defined,and the gragh evaluation review technique model is constructed on the basis of the risk element and flow.Secondly,node risk,system risk and risk element importance are introduced to further describe the risk transfer relationship.Then,the moment estimation is used to deal with the reliability of experts,the improved quantum entropy model is used to solve the maximum entropy model,and the uncertainty distribution and the probability density functions are obtained.On this basis,the momentum function is obtained and the parameters are calculated.Finally,the paper take a certain fighter＇s Cobra maneuvering mission as an example to assess flight risks,analyze risk mechanisms,and verify the effectiveness of the model.