摘要
针对决策问题的不确定性和复杂性以及属性权重和专家权重未知等特征,提出一种融合新型偏好度模型和改进累积前景理论的决策方法。首先,定义群决策问题的基本框架,将属性值和心理参考点改进为区间值;其次,根据区间心理参考点的二维几何表示定义新型偏好度模型,由此确定属性权重和专家权重;再次,聚合专家意见,考虑专家心理行为,由属性值和区间心理参考点的位置关系,得到收益值和损失值的计算公式,进而确定各方案的总前景值及排序关系;最后,通过案例分析和方法对比验证该方法的有效性、可行性和实用性。
In view of the uncertainty and complexity of decision-making problems,as well as the unknown weights of the attributes and the experts,a decision-making method based on new preference model and improved cumulative prospect theory is proposed.Firstly,the basic framework of the group decision-making problem is defined,and the attribute values and the psychological reference points are improved to the interval values.Secondly,the new preference model is defined according to the two-dimensional geometric representation of the interval psychological reference points to determine the attribute weights and the expert weights.Thirdly,the experts' opinion and psychological behavior are taken into account.Based on the positional relationship between the attribute values and the interval psychological reference points,the formulas of gains and losses are obtained,and then the overall prospect values and ranking relationship of each alternative are determined.Finally,the case analysis and comparison illustrate the validity,feasibility and practicability of the proposed method.
作者
项华春
李京峰
陈云翔
李正欣
XIANG Huachun;LI Jingfeng;CHEN Yunxiang;LI Zhengxin(Equipment Management and UA V Engineering College,Air Force Engineering University,Xi'an 710051,China)
出处
《系统工程与电子技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第12期2743-2750,共8页
Systems Engineering and Electronics
基金
国家自然科学基金(61502521)资助课题
关键词
累积前景理论
偏好度
区间心理参考点
多属性
群决策
cumulative prospect theory
preference degree
interval psychological reference point
multi-attribute
group decision making