中国对东盟蔬菜出口贸易:基于引力模型的实证研究

China's Vegetables Export Trade to ASEAN:An Empirical Study Based on Gravity Model

中国是世界上的蔬菜生产大国和蔬菜出口大国。2002年中国与东盟国家签订协议共同建立所辖人口数量最多、在发展中国家中规模最大的自由贸易区。本文以此为背景,在分析中国对东盟蔬菜出口贸易现状的基础上,通过构建扩展引力模型,实证分析中国对东盟蔬菜出口贸易的影响因素。主要研究结论是,贸易双方国家GDP总量、地理距离、CAFTA贸易环境、自身国家蔬菜单产(生产技术)等对中国与东盟的蔬菜出口贸易影响显著,同时通过贸易潜力测算前瞻性地分析出中国对东盟的蔬菜出口贸易前景,并有针对性地提出相应的对策与建议。

China is a large vegetable producing country and also a vegetable export super power in the world.In 2002,China and ASEAN countries signed an agreement to jointly establish the largest free trade area indeveloping countries,which will serve the largest population in the world.On the basis of analyzing the statusquo of China’s ASEAN vegetable export trade,this paper empirically analyzed the influencing factors of China’sASEAN vegetable export trade by constructing an extended gravity model.The main conclusion of this study isthat total GDP of both trading countries,geographical distance,CAFTA trade environment,and each country’svegetable per unit yield（production technology）,etc. had significant impact on vegetable export trade betweenChina and ASEAN countries.The paper also analyzed the trade prospects of China’s vegetable export to ASEANcountries in the future by trade potential measurement,and provided relevant countermeasures and suggestions.