特朗普对朝政策的变化与选择

The Evolution and Choices of President Trump's DPRK Policy

2018年2月,借平昌冬奥会,朝韩迅速走近。4月27日,两国元首实现板门店会晤并发表《板门店宣言》。随后,美国和朝鲜开始接触。6月12日,特朗普和金正恩在新加坡见面。年初还剑拔弩张的半岛局势突然趋缓。半岛局势演变以朝核为核心、以大国地缘政治竞争为背景,特朗普政府对朝政策是否可以持续,还是权宜之计仍是未知。结合其竞选开始表现出来的对朝政策取向,笔者认为,特朗普对朝政策不符合传统美国外交常理,他希望在朝核问题上有所突破,但在解除制裁、对朝承诺不使用武力等方面做出让步的可能性较低。本文回顾特朗普对朝政策的演变脉络,分析了其演变的主要原因,最后提出其可能做出的选择。特朗普对朝政策的任何变化都会对朝鲜半岛局势带来正反两个方面的影响,各国必须密切关注并及时加以应对。

In February 2018, the Pyeongchang Winter Olympic Games were taken as an opportunity for theDPRK and the ROK to approach each other. On April 27th, a historic summit was held in Panmunjom andleaders of the two sides released the Panmunjom Declaration, which initiated the contact between the USand the DPRK. On June 12th, a summit between the US and the DPRK was held in Singapore, and ten？sions on the peninsula have been eased since then. In the context of geopolitical competition among majorpowers, the core of the situation on the Korean Peninsula lies in the nuclear issue. Whether Trump＇s policytowards the DPRK is sustainable or expedient remains unknown. Based on his political tendency exhibitedsince the presidential election in 2016, the paper proposes that Trump＇s policy towards the DPRK would bedifferent with the established foreign policy of the US since he is prone to make some breakthroughs in thenuclear issue. Nevertheless, he is unlikely to compromise in lifting the sanctions and military pressure onthe DPRK. This paper traces the evolution of Trump＇s DPRK policy, analyzes its major reasons, and madepredictions on possible choices of President Trump. In conclusion, any change of Trump？s policy towards the DPRK will make both negative and positive impacts on the situation on the Korean Peninsula, to which thecountries concerned should pay close attention and take timely action.