地缘政治中遏制战略的牵制策略及误判窘境

Containment Strategy and Miscalculation in Geo-politics

文章认为地缘政治纷争中,由于低估了遏制战略意图的应激反应和忽视实施牵制策略构成要素的对冲能量,地缘政治的遏制战略实施中出现了多层次的误判窘境,包括守成国家遏制战略误判的零和博弈窘境、棋手国家遏制战略误判的联合自保窘境、支轴国家遏制战略误判的双重中立窘境,由于这些遏制战略误判,溢出或连带的危机引发地区乃至全球频发矛盾和冲突,导致整个国际社会出现多元的地缘政治断裂,从而使得全球治理陷入动荡不安的高危状态之中。

In Geo-political games,when a power exercises containment strategy,the power underestimates stress reaction and neglect the hedging energy from other side,a dilemma of multilevel miscalculations will emerge,which includes the dilemma of zero-sum games miscalculation by the established power,the dilemma of union for self-protection by players,the dilemma of double neutrality of pivot countries.As a result from these calculations,regional or global conflicts or disputes present,leading to multiple Geo-political fracture in the international community,hence the turbulence in the global governance.