地震灾害对汶川地区经济韧性的影响研究

Impact of earthquake disaster on economic resilience in Wenchuan area

中国的自然灾害与区域经济链之间的耦合关系随着经济的飞速发展日益加深,灾害所招致的经济损失呈几何级增长。多灾环境下,城市韧性的提升需要将经济系统对于风险和灾害的抵抗能力,以及在经受灾害扰动后的恢复能力考虑其中。文章介绍了区域经济韧性的概念基础,并依据城市经济基础理论提出假设,以区位商测算作为观测指标,展开对区域经济韧性的分析。通过汇总四川省各县市经济部门数据,经因子降维对析出的六个主要经济部门进行地震前后的对比分析。结果表明,与区域经济韧性的驱动力方面直接相关的基本经济部分——教育和社会福利部门受地震影响最为明显;而非基本经济部分——交通、销售、医疗和财政的震荡也反映出区域经济在应灾稳定性方面的不足。通过实证分析汶川地震对地区经济韧性的影响,以期为加强地区乃至全国经济韧性提供实用性的重点部门测算、发展方向预估的可靠方法。

The coupling relation between natural disasters and regional economy chain in China is becoming increa- singly closer with the rapid development of economy. Therefore, the economic loss caused by disasters shows exponen- tial growth. In face of many unexpected disasters, it is necessary to take into account the urban capacity to resist risks and disasters and recover from disasters to improve urban resilience. This article starts from the foundation of regional e- conomic resilience,followed by making an assumption based on urban economic foundation theory and an analysis of regional economic resilience with the observation parameter of location quotient measurement. It collects the economic data of each city and county in Sichuan Province and makes a comparative study of 6 major economic sectors by means of factor-dimension reduction before and after the earthquake. Results show that the sectors of education and social welfare, which are the basic components of economy directly related to the driving force of regional economic resilience, undergo the most serious impact of the earthquake. The fluctuations of non-basic components of economy such as the Ixaffic, marketing, health care and finance also reflect the shortcomings of regional economy in terms of resisting disas- ters. The empirical analysis of the impact of Wenchuan earthquake on regional economic resilience is expected to pro- vide a practical and reliable method for the improvement of regional and national economic resilience dealing with the measurement of major sectors and the estimation of development tendency.