中国粮食生产的要素投入约束分析

Analysis of factor input constraint of grain production in China

改革开放以来,中国在粮食生产上取得了举世瞩目的成就,但是受国内耕地面积迅速减少、耕地质量持续下降、环境污染日益严重、水资源约束逐渐趋紧以及粮食金融化趋势不断加强等因素的影响,中国粮食安全前景并不乐观。借鉴萨伊三要素理论,构建灰色关联模型,分三个阶段对中国改革开放以来粮食生产的要素投入情况进行了分析。研究结果显示,在改革开放以来的不同阶段,影响中国粮食生产的要素呈现出明显差异。在1978—1989年的家庭联产承包责任制效应阶段,农业财政支出额对粮食生产影响最大;在1990—2001年的制度平稳阶段,有效灌溉面积影响最大;在2002—2011年的加入世贸组织后阶段,粮食播种面积影响最大。从要素投入角度看,中国改革开放以来的粮食生产对土地要素的依赖非常大,耕地是约束中国粮食生产最为重要的要素投入。因此,中国保障粮食供应量的最有效手段就是破解耕地对粮食生产的约束,可以考虑在农业"走出去"战略实施过程中,通过建立海外耕地投资战略以释放中国内部耕地承载压力,缓解粮食供给的生产要素约束。

China has made remarkable achievements in grain production since the reform and opening-up. However, China＇s food security prospect is not optimistic because of the factors such as the rapidly decreasing cultivated land area, the continuously declining cultivated land quality, the increasingly serious environmental pollution, the gradually tightening water resource constraints, and the gradually strengthening food financialization trend. This article analyzes China＇s grain production factor input in three stages since the reform and opening-up by means of Say＇s three elements theory and the grey correlation model. The results show that the factors of China＇ s grain production have been distinctly different in different stages since the reform and opening-up. In the stage of family land contract responsibi- lity system from 1978 to 1989 ,the agricultural fiscal expenditure has the greatest effect on the grain production. In the stage of the smoothly running system from 1990 to 2001 ,the effective irrigation area has the greatest effect on the grain production. In the stage after China＇ s joining the World Trade Organization from 2002 to 2011, the grain sown area has the greatest effect on the grain production. From the perspective of factor input,China＇s grain production has been heavily dependent on the factor of land, and the cultivated land is the most significant factor input of constraining China＇s grain production since the reform and opening-up. Therefore,the most effective means is to break the constraining effect of cultivated land on grain production to safeguard China＇ s food supply. It is considered helpful to reduce production factor＇s constraining effect on food supply by releasing the internal pressure of cultivated land through the establishment of overseas farmland investment strategy in the implementation of the agricultural ＂going out＂ strategy.