非小细胞肺癌患者预后影响因素分析及预测列线图构建

The analysis of prognostic factors and the establishment of survival predictive nomogram for patients with non-small cell lung cancer

目的:探讨影响非小细胞肺癌患者化疗后生存时间的相关因素,构建非小细胞肺癌患者化疗后生存时间的预测列线图。方法:回顾性分析1 465例化疗后非小细胞肺癌细胞肺癌患者的相关信息,COX比例风险模型筛选影响预后的危险因素,并根据COX回归结果构建非小细胞肺癌患者预后生存风险列线图。结果:1 465例患者中有659例患者死亡,患者中位生存期为913 d,COX回归分析结果显示患者性别,年龄,TNM分期,KPS评分,肺切除手术及饮酒史为影响非小细胞肺癌化疗后生存时间的独立预测因子。依此建立预测非小细胞肺癌患者化疗后生存时间预测列线图的一致性系数为0.701。结论:基于患者性别,年龄,TNM分期,KPS评分,肺切除手术及饮酒史等临床资料建立的非小细胞肺癌化疗后患者总生存时间预测的列线图有助于个体化预测患者预后,有利于针对性地治疗预后较差的非小细胞肺癌患者。

OBJECTIVE To discuss the factors affecting the survival time and build the nomogram to predict the survival rate of patients with non-small cell lung cancer.METHODS The data of 1 465 non-small cell lung cancer patients treated with chemotherapy were retrospectively analyzed from January 1 st,2006 to December 31 st,2016 in Cancer Hospital affiliated to Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences.The independent risk factors were screened by the COX survival model and the nomogram was established according to the screened factors.RESULTS Totally 659 death records were found in the observation patients,the median survival was 913 days,the independent prognostic factors included sex,age,TNM staging,KPS score,lung resection and history of drinking,the concordance of the established nomgram was 0.701.CONCLUSION The nomogram based on the sex,age,TNM staging,KPS score,lung resection and history of drinking can predict the survival in patients with non-small cell lung cancer individualized and patients with predicted poor prognosis can benefit from it.