想象与现实:特朗普贸易战的政治经济学

Imagery and Reality: The Political Economy of Trump’s Trade War

特朗普秉持经济民族主义和民粹主义的价值观,退出多边国际机制,视国际经济竞争为零和博弈,推行一系列＂美国优先＂的经济政策。特朗普认为,全球化造成美国制造业向海外转移,导致数百万制造业岗位的流失。新兴经济体对美国实行不公平的贸易政策,使美国沦为自由贸易的牺牲品,这是美国霸权衰落的根源。因此,特朗普政府在全球范围挑起了包括针对主要贸易伙伴的钢铝关税战和汽车关税战及对中国的全面贸易战。特朗普企图一劳永逸地解决美国经济长期面临的问题和挑战,结果可能适得其反。如果形势无法扭转,由于中国、欧盟、加拿大、墨西哥和俄罗斯等国家纷纷对美国采取报复措施,尽管对特朗普的政治杀伤力有限,但美国将付出高昂的政治经济成本。美国的国际领导地位严重受损,为了规避高关税壁垒,制造业可能继续向海外转移,美国将损失大量就业岗位。

The power of anti-institutionalism represented by American President Donald Trump was emerging in the U. S. political arena in 2016.Trump adheres to the values of economic nationalism and populism,withdraws from multilateral international mechanisms, regards the international economic competition as a zero-sum game,and implements a series of "America-first"economic policies,all of which bode ill for the recovery of world economy. Trump believes that globalization has caused the outward relocation of U. S. manufacturing industry,resulting in the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs. He also believes that emerging economies have imposed unfair trade policies on the United States,making the United States a victim of free trade,which is the root cause of the decline of the U. S. hegemony. As a result,the Trump administration has provoked three trade wars around the world,including a steel and aluminum trade war,an auto trade war,both against American major trading partners,and a third and comprehensive trade war against China. Trump attempts to once and for all solve the long-standing problems and challenges facing the U. S. economy by punishing competitors through high tariffs or trade wars and shutting down free trade. The results,however,may be counterproductive.China,the European Union,Canada,Mexico,and Russia have already retaliated with harsh measures. Though such countermeasures may have limited political consequence on the Trump administration, if the situation remains unchanged,the United States will pay high political and economic costs. The international leadership of the United States will be seriously damaged. In order to avoid high tariff barriers,the American manufacturing industry will likely continue to move overseas,and the United States will still face the challenge of job loss.