营改增促进现代服务业高质量发展的效应分析

On the Accelerating Effects of Replacing Business Tax with VAT on High-Quality Development of the Modern Service Industry

现代服务业在中国经济结构中的作用日益显著,通过税制改革促进现代服务业高质量发展成为社会各界共识。论题以营改增为自然实验构建双重差分模型,检验营改增对现代服务业的影响。结果显示:营改增政策促进了现代服务业的投资规模,使得企业快速成长,形成规模经济效应,从而提高企业的盈利能力。本结论的政策含义在于:通过税制改革,降低企业的营运成本,促进中国经济高质量发展。

The role of the modern service industry in China＇ s economic structure has been increasingly signifi- cant. The tax reform should be made to promote the high-quality development of modern service industry, which has become a consensus in different sectors of society. Starting from the natural experiment of replacing business tax with VAT, this paper builds a double differential model to test its effects on the modern service industry. The result shows that the policy of replacing business tax with VAT has increased the investment scale of modern service industry, has accelerated the growth of enterprises, and has formed the effect of economies of scale, which hence improve the profitability of enterprises. The conclusion is of great implication in the policy that the tax reform can be made to reduce the operating costs of enterprises and increase the high-quality development of Chinese economy.