如何认识当前全球自由贸易的制约因素

On How to Understand the Current Constraints of Global Free Trade

特朗普自就职以来,试图通过单边行动来改变现有贸易体系并重构全球价值链,这已经对全球自由贸易形成巨大挑战。从全球自由贸易的历史中可以看出,自由贸易总是在规则主导国能明显获益时才被积极推动。而当前全球经济结构调整的压力,美国国内经济社会矛盾的压力,甚至是美国自身对于霸权地位的担忧,都已促使美国国内的新孤立主义再次抬头。这种趋势虽然并不会让WTO多边体系马上瓦解,但全球很有可能进入一个贸易领域的"牙买加体系"。面对困境,中国应该理性看待中美贸易摩擦,提倡正确的义利观,积极拓展区域和双边经贸协商,并将国内改革和对外开放有机协调起来。

Since he took office, Trump has been attempting to change the existing trading system and restructure the global value chain through unilateral actions, posing enormous challenges to global free trade. As can be seen from the history of global free trade, free trade would be actively promoted only when the dominant countries can obviously benefit from it. The current pressure of the United States due to global economic restructuring and its domestic economic and social conflicts, coupled with its concerns about its hegemonic status, have caused new isolationism to rise again. Although this trend will not immediately disintegrate the WTO multilateral system, the world is likely to enter into a ＂Jamaica system＂ in the trade field. In the face of the difficulties, China should rationally deal with the Sino-US trade frictions, promote correct views on justice and interests, actively expand regional and bilateral economic and trade consultations, and organically coordinate domestic reforms and opening up.