论全球贸易自由化的基本趋势与现实挑战

On the Basic Trends and Realistic Challenges of Global Trade Liberalization

本文从世界经济发展的四大基本趋势中,揭示全球贸易自由化面临的挑战以及未来前景,并提出应对这些挑战的基本方略。世界经济发展的四大趋势是:世界产业革命与产业创新逐渐从宏观领域深入到微观领域;经济全球化逐渐从传统国际分工模式演进到全球价值链分工模式;对外开放的重点逐渐从边境上措施转移至边境内措施;全球经贸体制日益表现为区域主义的兴起与WTO的边缘化。本文提出应对这些挑战的基本战略与政策主要包括推动市场开放与市场深化,推动分工深化与互通互联,推动创新发展与结构调整。

This paper reveals the challenges and future prospects of global trade liberalization in light of the four basic trends of world economic development, and proposes the basic strategy to deal with these challenges. The four major trends in world economic development are： the world industrial revolution and innovation are gradually expanding from the macroscopic field to the microscopic field; economic globalization will gradually evolve from the traditional international division of labor model to the global value-chain division of labor model; the focus of opening up measures is gradually shifting away from the border to the inland; and the global economic and trade system is increasingly manifested as the rise of regionalism and the marginalization of the WTO. This article holds that the basic strategies and policies for dealing with these challenges mainly include increasing market opening, deepening division of labor and connectivity, and promoting innovation-based development and structural adjustment.