温度对我国近期H7N9型禽流感传播影响的数学分析

Mathematical Analysis of Impact of Temperature on Recent H7N9 Avian Influenza in China

以2013至2015年世界卫生组织(WHO)发布的中国H7N9型禽流感三波疫情的实际数据为例,首先利用Logistic增长模型进行拟合,发现其拟合曲线与原始数据基本吻合;然后分别考虑潜伏期温度和最适温度的影响,对经典的Logistic增长模型进行改进,算出三波禽流感疫情的最适温度分别为15. 0132℃、8. 517℃和6. 624℃。结果表明了改进后的模型较好地描述了流感疫情且不同时期的禽流感疫情具有不同的最适温度。

This paper is concerned with three waves of H7N9 avian influenza epidemic which occurred in China from 2013 to 2015.Based on the real data of the infectious cases issued by the World Health Organization（WHO）,Logistic growth model is used and the fitting curves agree with the original data.By considering the impact of the temperature in the latent period and the best-fit temperature,the classical Logistic growth model is improved and computations show that the best-fit temperatures for three waves are 15.0132℃,8.517℃ and 6.624℃,which implies that the improved model is better for describing the avian influenza and the best-fit temperatures are different for different periods.