近30年来我国粮食产量波动影响因素分析

ANALYSIS ON INFLUENCING FACTORS OF GRAIN PRODUCTION FLUCTUATION DURING THE LAST 30 YEARS IN CHINA

[目的]根据粮食产量波动特征,从自然因素、科技因素(物质装备)、社会经济因素和农业生产条件等方面对粮食产量的影响进行量化分析,为科学合理地制定农业政策,保障我国粮食安全提供理论依据。[方法]文章利用HP滤波法分析1978—2010年我国粮食产量波动特征,并采用灰色关联与层析分析相结合的综合评价法定量分析不同波动周期各影响因子对我国粮食产量波动的影响度。[结果](1)改革开放以来,我国粮食产量经历了完整的6个波动阶段,平均波动周期为6年;(2)除1994—2000年,各波动周期的粮食产量受科技因素的影响最大,且影响日益显著,影响度从1978—1981年的37. 0%增加到2006—2010年的48. 3%,其中,有效灌溉面积的影响增大趋势最为明显,其次是农业机械总动力,化肥施用量的影响呈减弱趋势;(3)社会经济因素对粮食产量的影响呈波动性增加的规律,2006—2010年影响度达到24. 9%;(4)农业生产条件对粮食产量的影响在20世纪80年代初期与科技因素基本持平,此后,除1994—2000年,与科技因素的影响度差距越来越大,到2000—2006年对粮食产量的影响度仅为16. 6%,其中,耕地面积的影响度下降最多,到2006—2010年,影响度仅为1. 1%;自然因素对粮食产量波动的影响最小,且较为稳定,除1985—1988年影响度达到24. 3%,其余波动周期均在8. 7%~12. 4%之间,2006—2010年影响度为10. 2%。[结论]完善农田水利灌溉体系,加强对农业机械指导的"重科技"举措比单纯增加后备耕地数量、改善应对气候变化与自然灾害能力的"靠资源"发展更为有效;加大农田水利投入,完成灌区续建配套与灌排泵站更新改造是目前最重要的发展方向。

According to the characteristics of grain production fluctuation, the influencing factors such as natural factors, technological factors, socio-economic factors and conditional of agricultural production were studied, so as to provide a theoretical method for establishing scientific and reasonable agricultural policy and ensuring food security in China.Hodick-prescott filter method was used to analyze the characteristic of grain production fluctuation in China from 1978-2010, grey correlation analysis and analytic hierarchy process （AHP）method were used to quantitatively analyze the influence degree of influencing factors in different fluctuation cycle.Grain production had experienced 6 fluctuation cycles from 1978 to 2010, the average time scale of fluctuation cycleswas 6 years. In different cycles, technological factors had the greatest impact on grain production fluctuation, the influence degree increased from 37.0% in 1978-1981 to 48.3% in 2006-2010, among which, the effect of irrigated area on grain production increased dramatically, while the effect of chemical fertilizer consumption was graduallyweaker. The effect of socio-economic factors increased volatility and reached to 25.0% in 2006-2010. In the early 1980s, the effect of conditions for agricultural production was as important as technological factors, otherwise, the influencing degree fell down to 16.5% in 2006-2010, among which, the effective degree of the arable area had the biggest drops and fell down to 1.1%. Natural factors had the minimal impact on the grain production fluctuation, and grew steadily from 8.7% to 12.8%,the effective degree of which reached to 24.3% during 1985-1988.＂Focusing on technology＂ by improving irrigation system and enhancing guidance of agricultural machinery has more efficiency than ＂relying on resource＂ by increasing the reserve cultivated land improving ability to cope with climate change and natural disasters. Increasing investment in water conservancy, completing the constructionin irrigated areas and drainage pumping station renovationwill be the most useful methods to ensure food security.