基于灰色关联的西北地区农业循环经济发展评价

EVALUATION OF AGRICULTURAL CIRCULAR ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST CHINA BESED ON GREY CORRELATION

[目的]发展农业循环经济有利于缓解西北地区农业资源与生态环境的压力,促进传统农业转型,刺激农业经济的增长,实现农业的可持续发展。[方法]文章通过构建西北地区农业循环经济指标体系,运用灰色关联法计算关联度并分析比较各影响因素间的相对变化程度用来分析西北地区农业循环经济的发展水平。[结果]关联系数结果表明影响陕西地区农业循环经济的因素主要是农民人均纯收入、农药施用量、农业柴油施用量、有效灌溉面积及禽畜粪便利用率;影响甘肃省的农业循环经济发展的因素主要是农民人均纯收入、复种指数、秸秆利用率及禽畜粪便利用率;影响青海地区农业循环经济的因素主要是人均粮食产量、节水灌溉面积以及秸秆利用率;影响宁夏地区农业循环经济的因素主要是农林牧渔业增加值、节水灌溉面积、有效灌溉面积以及秸秆利用率;影响新疆地区农业循环经济的因素主要是农药施用量、复种指数、有效灌溉面积及禽畜粪便利用率。关联度大小结果表明西北地区农业循环经济的发展水平从大到小依次为宁夏(0. 743)、甘肃(0. 716)、青海(0. 674)、新疆(0. 619)、陕西(0. 585),针对青海、新疆和陕西地区应采取相应措施,促进农业循环经济的发展,进而提高西北地区农业循环经济的整体水平。[结论]在西北地区发展农业循环经济,应重点加强资源减量化和再利用方面的建设,以及平衡区域间的协调合作发展,推动农业循环经济的健康持续发展。

The development of the agricultural recycling economy will help ease the pressure on agricultural resources and the ecological environment in the northwest region, promote the transformation of traditional agriculture, stimulate the growth of the agricultural economy, and realize the sustainable development of agriculture.This paper constructed the agricultural recycling economy index system in the Northwest China, used the grey relational method to calculate the degree of correlation, and analyzed and compared the relative changes among the influencing factors to get the development level of the agricultural circular economy inthe Northwest China.The results of correlation coefficient indicated that the factors affecting the agricultural recycling economy in Shaanxi were mainly the per capita net income of farmers, the amount of pesticides, the amount of agricultural diesel, the effective irrigation area, and the utilization rate of livestock manure; the main factors affecting the development of agricultural recycling economy in Gansu province were the per capita net income of farmers, multiple cropping index, straw utilization rate and utilization rate of livestock manure; the factors affecting agricultural recycling economy in Qinghai were mainly per capita food production, water-saving irrigation area and straw utilization rate; the factors affecting agricultural recycling economy in Ningxia were mainly added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, the area of water-saving irrigation, the area of effective irrigation, and the utilization rate of straw. The factors affecting the agricultural recycling economy in Xinjiang were mainly the amount of pesticides applied, the multiple cropping index, the effective irrigation area, and the utilization of livestock manure. The degree of relevance indicated that the development level of the agricultural recycling economy inthe Northwest China was Ningxia （0.743）, Gansu （0.716）, Qinghai （0.674）, Xinjiang （0.619）, and Shaanxi （0.585） in descending order, that was to say, for Qinghai, Xinjiang and Shaanxi,itshould take corresponding measures to promote the development of agricultural recycling economy, and then improve the overall level of agricultural recycling economy in the northwest region.The study indicated that we should focus on strengthening the construction of resource reduction and reuse, as well as the balanced and cooperative development of regional balance, and promote the healthy and sustainable development of agricultural recycling economy in the development of the agricultural recycling economy in the northwest region.