辽西北地区农业干旱危险性评价与区划

THE STUDY ON HAZARD ASSESSMENT AND REGIONALIZATION OF AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT IN THE NORTHWEST OF LIAONING PROVINCE

[目的]开展农业干旱危险性评价与区划研究,为辽宁省西北地区农业防旱抗灾工作提供科学依据。[方法]文章根据联合国国际减灾战略署(ISDR)对农业干旱危险性的定义,分析了构成研究区作物干旱危险性的致灾因子和孕灾环境因子,采用层次分析法确定了各因子的权重,构建了研究区农业干旱危险性评价指标和模型。以2009年为例,通过利用降雨、土壤、农业生产类型及地形等数据计算了辽西北地区农业干旱危险性评价指数,利用自然间断点法分级干旱危险性评价指数,并借助GIS技术,绘制研究区农业干旱危险性等级区划图。[结果] 2009年作物生长期间研究区农业干旱危险性由高到低排列为:朝阳市>葫芦岛市>锦州市>阜新市>铁岭市>沈阳市。[结论]辽西北地区农业干旱危险性等级区的划分,能够帮助政府管理部门为面临干旱威胁不同的区域建立适当的防灾方法和有效的应急预案。

The study of hazard assessment and regionalization of agricultural drought can provide scientific basis for agricultural drought prevention and disaster resistance of the northwest of Liaoning province.Based on the definition of agricultural drought hazard of International Strategy for Disaster Reduction （ISDR）, this study analyzed disaster inducing and forming environment factors that make up the drought hazard of crop in the northwest of Liaoning province. The weights of each factor were determined by using Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP）, and the hazard assessment indexes and models of agricultural drought of the study area were built. Taking 2009 as an example, the hazard assessment indexes were calculated by using data such as rainfall, soil types, agricultural production types and terrain, and divided into 4 grades by using Natural Breaks（Jenks） classification. The regionalization map of agricultural drought hazard of the study area was drawn by Geographical Information System（GIS）. It showed that agricultural drought hazard from high to low during crop growth period was： Chaoyang city〉Huludao city〉Jinzhou city〉Fuxin city〉Tieling city〉Shenyang city.The regionalization of agricultural drought hazard in the northwest of Liaoning province can help government to establish appropriate disaster prevention methods and effective emergency plans for regions facing different levels of drought.