关于ESI前1%学科入围时间预测的思考

本文提出对学术机构入围ESI前1%学科时间预测方法的几点思考。主要提出5条思考:关于预测误差度量问题;关于入围名额变动问题;关于入围阀值确定问题;关于要关注入围的共同竞争者的问题;关于预测误差积累与节省工作量的问题。学术机构入围ESI前1%学科时间预测是很有意义的课题,值得图情界深入研究,要解决一些技术上的细节问题,更要注意关键的突出问题。

This paper gave some thoughts on the time prediction of academic institutions entering the world top 1% disciplines ranked by ESI. We made five comments on this topic, including： on the prediction error measurement, on the number of finalists, on the determination of the threshold of the entry, pay attention to the contender who is concerned about the finalists, on the accumulation of predictive errors and saving the workload. Time prediction of academic institutions entering the world top 1% disciplines ranked by ESI is a very meaningful research topic which is worthy of in-depth study by the library and information field. We should solve some of the technical details of the problem, but also pay more attention to key issues.