金融发展、经济周期与研发投入强度

Financial Development, Business Cycle and R&D Intensity

受融资约束影响,我国研发投入强度逆周期变动,其对经济扩张的负向反应力度较强,而对经济紧缩的正向反应力度较弱,因此连续的经济周期波动对研发投入强度有负效应。本文基于中国1998-2014年间30个省市数据,研究金融发展对研发投入强度与经济周期之间协动关系的影响,发现金融效率提高与信贷期限结构改善可减弱研发投入强度对经济周期的反应并降低负效应;区分经济周期阶段来看,两者不仅会降低研发投入强度对经济扩张的负向反应力度,还减弱了其对经济紧缩的正向反应,因此对负效应的降低作用有限,原因在于金融体系在经济紧缩期过度支持固定资产投资而忽视研发投入。而且,金融规模扩张会放大研发投入强度对经济扩张的负向反应并加剧该负效应,这种现象在东、西部区域更为突出。因此,科技金融政策根据经济周期阶段与区域特征相机抉择是有效规避上述负效应,促进研发投入强度稳健提升的关键。

Due to financing constraint, China's R&D intensity moves counter-cyclically, its negative response to economic expansion is stronger than its positive response to economic recession, therefore sustained economic fluctuation has negative effect on R&D intensity. This paper study the impact of financial development on the relationship between R&D intensity and business cycle by using annual data of 30 provinces & cities over the period from 1998 to 2014. The empirical results show that improvement in financial efficiency and credit maturity structure will smooth the response of R&D intensity to business cycle and reduce the negative effect mentioned above. Analysis into each stage, it indicates that the improvement in financial efficiency and credit maturity structure can greatly weaken the negative response of R&D intensity to economic expansion, but they both will reduce the positive response of R&D intensity to economic recession at the same time. The reason is that the financial system supports fixed assets investment to a greater extent in the period of economic recession and ignores the innovation input. In addition, it is worth noting that the expansion of financial scale will amplify the negative response of R&D input intensity to economic expansion and further exacerbate the negative effect, which is more prominent in the east and west regions. Therefore,forming technology and finance policy concerning the certain stage of business cycle and regional characteristics is the key measure to effectively evade the negative effects and promote the steady development of R&D intensity.