新农保和城居保对城乡老年人口的减贫效应:基于贫困脆弱性视角的分析

A Study of the Effect of the New Rural Pension Insurance and Urban Residents Pension Insurance on Poverty:Basing on the Perspective of Vulnerability

本文基于北京大学中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据库,使用可行广义最小二乘法(FGLS)测度城乡人口的贫困脆弱性,并使用模糊断点回归分析城居保、新农保对于贫困脆弱性的影响。结果显示:新农保的领取使农村老年人贫困脆弱性降低0.64-8.9个百分点,但政策效果不显著;城居保的领取使城镇老年人贫困脆弱性上升0.72-7.2个百分点,结论同样不显著。这两项养老保险并没有起到减贫养老的作用,扶贫工作任重道远。

Based on the data of Beijing University China Family Panel Studies （CFPS） database, this thesis uses the FGLS method to measure the vulnerability to poverty of urban and rural population respectively, and on that basis, with the usage of Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity, analyzes the impact of endowment insurance on vulnerability to poverty. There are some conclusions obtained in this thesis： the receipt of new rural pension insurance has reduced the vulnerability of the elder in rural areas by 0.64 to 8.9 percentage points, but the result is not significant. The the receipt of urban residents pension insurance has increased the vulnerability of urban elder by 0.72 to 7.2 percentage points, but the result is not significant, either. These two endowment insurances do not play the role of reducing poverty, and poverty alleviation is still a long-term task.