挤出效应还是集聚效应?——房价对人力资本的影响及区域差异研究

Crowding Out Effect or Agglomerative Effect:Research on the Impact of Housing Prices on Human Capital and the Regional Differences

利用2003―2016年31个省、自治区和直辖市的省级面板数据,运用面板回归方法分析了房价对人力资本的影响及其区域差异。研究发现,全国、东部、中部和西部地区的房价与人力资本之间存在正U型关系,即房价对人力资本先产生挤出效应后产生集聚效应。房价对东部、中部和西部地区人力资本的影响程度依次增加。东部地区的城镇化率、医疗卫生条件和生活环境对人力资本产生显著正向影响。中部地区的城镇化率有利于人力资本的提升。西部地区的城镇化率对人力资本产生抑制作用,而人均可支配收入、医疗卫生条件和生活环境有助于提高人力资本水平。最后,从提高住房支付能力和分区域制定差异化的政策两个方面给出了提高人力资本水平的对策建议。

Based on the provincial panel data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities from 2003 to 2016, panel regression method is used to analyze the impact of house prices on human capital and the regional differences. The research finds that there is a positive U - shaped relationship between housing prices and human capital in the nation, eastern, central and western regions. This means housing price has crowding out effect on human capital first, and then leads to agglomerative effect. The impact of housing prices on human capital in the eastern, central and western regions increases in turn. The urbanization rate, medical and health conditions and living environment in the eastern region have a significant positive impact on human capital. The urbanization rate in the central region is conducive to the improvement of human capital. The urbanization rate in the western region has a restraint effect on human capital, while per capita disposable income, medical and health conditions and living environment help to increase the level of human capital. From the aspects of improving the housing affordability and formulating differentiated policies in different regions, suggestions for improving the level of human capital are proposed.