2030年CO_2排放地区分配及对经济增长的影响研究

Study on the Regional Distribution of CO_2 Emissions in 2030 and Its Impact on Economic Growth

基于公平原则,将中国2005～2030年CO_2排放量在地区间进行了分配,并计算各地区CO_2排放余缺,以探讨缺口地区向结余地区购买CO_2排放配额的可行性。采用计量模型估计了各地区CO_2排放量的产出弹性系数,据以模拟测算CO_2排放分配对地区经济的影响。研究表明:采用平均权数时,山东、江苏、山西等经济发达或资源富裕地区所分配到的CO_2排放比重较高,而海南、青海、宁夏等所分配到的较小;测算各地区余缺发现,广东省的结余最多,而山西省的缺口最大; CO_2排放分配对北京、河北、广东等地区的经济影响较大,其影响的方向和程度随时间的推移而变化,长期来看,CO_2排放分配对全国的经济总量将会是一种正向的影响,能够实现减排与增长的双赢。

Based on the principle of equity, China＇s CO2 emissions between 2005 and 2030 are distributed among regions, and the surplus and deficiency of CO2 emissions in the regions are calculated to explore the feasibility of purchasing CO/emission quotas from the surplus areas. The output elasticity coefficient of CO2 emissions in each region is estimated by using econometric mod- el in order to simulate the impact of CO2 emission distribution on regional economy. The study shows that when average weight is used, the proportions of CO2 emissions distributed in economi- cally developed or resource -rich high, while regions like Hainan, regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Shanxi are relatively Qinghai and Ningxia have low distribution. It is found that the surplus of Guangdong Province is the largest, while the gap of Shanxi Province is the largest. C02 emission distribution has greater impacts on the economy of Beijing, Hebei, and Guangdong, and the direction and the extent of its impact change over time. In the long run, the distribution of CO2 emissions will have a positive impact on the total economic output of China, which means a win - win situation of emission reduction and economic growth can be achieved.