税收认知影响个人所得税的劳动供给效应吗——基于似不相关双变量Probit模型的分析

Does Tax Consciousness Affect Labor Supply Effect of Personal Income Tax?Analysis Based on Seemingly Unrelated Bivariate Probit Model

个人所得税对劳动供给效应的影响建立在税楔改变个体收入进而影响个体行为的基础上,但是,现实中许多个体对自身准确税额的认知程度有限,从而从根本上动摇了个人所得税变动影响个体劳动供给的最根本的隐含假设。同时,个体工作时间的改变除受个体主观意愿的影响外,还受其工作时间决定能力的限制,忽视后者研究结论将发生偏差。在问卷调查基础上,采用似不相关双变量Probit模型,将个人所得税降低所导致的工作时间改变与个体工作时间决定能力同时纳入实证分析框架,就个体税收认知对个人所得税劳动供给效应的影响进行研究,发现个体税收认知与个人所得税降低增加工作时间之间存在显著的正相关关系,且其边际效应随税额降低幅度增加而呈现轻微的递减趋势。

Labor supply effect of personal income tax is based on the change of individual behavior results from the variation of personal income due to tax wedge. However,there are many individuals who haven＇t realized their amount of tax for sure,which shakes the fundamental implicit assumption supporting the impact of the change of personal income tax imposed on individual labor supply. Meanwhile,besides individual subjective willingness,the change of individual working hours is also constrained by individual capacity of labor time determining,and neglect of the latter will result in bias. Based on questionnaire survey,this paper simultaneously puts the change of working hours resulting from lower personal income tax and individual capacity of labor time determining into the same empirically analytical framework,using seemingly unrelated bivariate Probit model to analyze the impact of individual tax consciousness on labor supply effect of personal income tax. It is concluded that tax consciousness has significant positive correlation with increase of work time resulting from reduction of personal income tax,while its marginal effect taking on a slight decline trend along with the increase of tax reduction.