社会运动视野下的加泰罗尼亚独立公投

Independence Referendum of Catalonia in the Perspective of Social Movement

加泰罗尼亚独立公投是一场弥散性、迁延性、复合性的社会运动,是当前民族主义运动与民主化进程相交织的典型案例,是西班牙中央与地方、国家与民族之间长周期的权力-权利博弈。本文引入社会运动视角,并确立了四维结构-竞争的分析框架。在四维结构-竞争中,除法理结构竞争占据主导外,西班牙中央政府在其他部分的优势并不明显,这意味着该议题仍将是一个长期的麻烦。当然,该问题仍然处于现有政治架构与法制框架下,发展为武装冲突的可能性微乎其微。

Independence referendum of Catalonia is a diffuse, persistent and complex social movement, a typical case of the interweaving of the current nationalism movement and democratization, and a long term game of power and right both between the central government and the local government and between the state and the nation of Spain. This paper establishes an analytical framework for the four-dimensional competition from the perspective of social movement. In this competition, the central government is dominant in legal structure completion, while in other structures, it does not have obvious advantages, which means that this issue will be a long term trouble. Of course, this issue is still under the current existing political framework and legal framework with almost no possibility to develop into armed conflicts. Besides, Spain has absolute advantages in external support, which means that the referendum is a constitutional crisis caused by combined forces of national separatism and democratization under international influence, but with no impossibility to become an international political crisis.