历史上陆海复合型国家的战略转型及其对中国的启示

The Strategic Transformations of the Land-Maritime Complex Powers in History and Their References to China

历史上陆海复合型国家的大战略取向转型有四种表现形式，即战略重心、攻防政策、制衡倾向、联盟战略，其中，战略重心的转型居于主导地位。影响陆海复合型国家战略转型的要素有6个：战略地理结构、攻防平衡、地缘威胁、资源汲取、战略学说、战略决策。笔者依托上述6个因素，分析了德国（1890-1918年）与苏联（1962-1982年）的战略转型成因和历史经验教训。笔者分析了中国战略转型面临的主要挑战和限制：地缘威胁的双重易受伤害性导致海陆资源分配分散化问题；先天地理条件的限制；联盟的可获性和有效性较低；避免过度扩张倾向；保持战略决策的连贯性。中国的战略转型最容易克服的可能是技术革新，最难克服的是战略决策和威胁判断中国要保持经济建设与国防投入、内政与外交、海权与陆权、大战略手段和目的等之间的平衡协作，注重防御性和威慑性的战略取向，加强危机管控，兼顾海权的国际公共安全产品属性。

The strategic transformations of the grand strategies of those land-maritime complex powers are reflected on four major aspects： strategic focus, offensive and defensive policy, orientation on balance, and strategy for alliance. Based on an observation of these four aspects, the author analyzes the causes, successes, and failures of the strategic transformations of Germany （1890-1918） and Soviet Union （1962-1982 ）. Then the author analyzes the major challenges and limitations, and concerns that confront China s strategic transformation at the present： China s dual vulnerability to geopolitical threats that may lead to an over-dispersion of its military resources, the limitations brought by China s in-born geographical conditions, the low level availability and efficacy of alliance, the orientation to avoid over-expansion, and the necessity to keep the coherence of strategic decision making. In China s strategic transformation, the easiest task might be the technological innovations, while the most difficult ones might be the strategic decision makings and judgments on threats. Therefore, it is necessary to keep a balance between economic construction and military expenditure, domestic foreign affairs, land and maritime strengths, and means and purposes of China s grand strategy. Furthermore, an importance should be attached to the strategic orientations emphasizing defensiveness and deterrence. More efforts are needed to strengthen the control and management of crisis with a simultaneous consideration on the maritime power s nature as a provider of public goods for international security.