中菲共建“一带一路”的基础、挑战与可能路径

The Foundations, Challenges and Feasible Paths for China and Philippines to Jointly Build ＂The Belt and Road＂

阿基诺三世执政时期，中菲南海争议、“南海仲裁案”导致的两国政治互信不足和菲方出现战略误判致使菲律宾对“一带一路”倡议的理解和认知不足，猜疑有余，中菲在政策沟通、民心相通等方面的合作明显滞后。近期，菲律宾新政府关于在南海争议上可以同中国协商谈判的表态为中菲关系的改善及两国共建“一带一路”带来了契机。中菲建交以来达成的诸多共识、中菲贸易的逆势提升，以及两国进出口贸易的优势互补、中菲人文交流的逐渐恢复和地方友城交往，为中菲开展“一带一路”合作提供了政治、经济和人文基础。但同时，中菲合作也面临政治互信不足、美日掣肘、菲律宾国内政治文化和高涨的民族主义情绪的不利影响。中菲开展“一带一路”倡议下的政策沟通、基础设施和产业园建设、海洋事务、风险评估等领域的合作符合两国的发展战略需求，符合中菲关系的长远发展。

Due to the South China Sea disputes, especially the arbitration unilaterally initiated by the Philippines during the Aquino III＇s administration, political distrust and strategic misjudgment between China and Philippines led to misunderstanding and suspicion on the ＂The Belt and Road＂ initiative by Philip- pines, resulting in a negative influence on Philippines＇ willingness to participate in the 21st Maritime Silk Road. Duterte administration may change the policy to- wards China, which will help to improve the Sino-Philippines relations and pro- mote bilateral cooperation. In fact, the political, economic, and cultural founda tions for China-Philippines cooperation on the ＂ The Belt and Road＂ can be found in the developments of China-Philippines relations in the past, such as the China-Philippines consensus that have been reached ever since the establishment of formal diplomatic relations between these two countries, the growth of bilateral trade and the nature of mutual complementarity of this trad recovered cultural exchanges. However, the cooperation is e, fac and the gradually ing some chaUen ges, including political distrust, constraints from U.S. and Japan, Philippines＇ domestic political culture and the rise of its nationalism in Philippines. At present, two countries can cooperate in the fields of policy communication, infrastructure investments, constructions of industrial parks, marine affairs, risk assessment and so on. Such cooperation not only fit for the demands of development strategy of both countries, but also benefit the long-term development of relations between China and Philippines.