摘要
俄罗斯作为“六方会谈”的成员之一，朝鲜半岛局势的发展与变化与俄罗斯的国家利益息息相关。在朝鲜第四、第五次核试验之后，俄罗斯一方面坚决反对朝鲜的核计划，另一方面则不希望因此破坏俄朝关系良好发展的局面，朝鲜日趋孤立的国际处境则为俄罗斯发展俄朝关系提供了更加充足的动力。同时，“萨德”系统的部署成为影响俄韩关系的新变量。俄罗斯判断朝鲜半岛不会出现“硬着陆”，希望降低朝鲜半岛局势的紧张度。当前，俄罗斯对半岛的政策是平衡、对等和独立接触。俄罗斯一方面回应朝鲜的安全关切，另一方面扩大与韩国的经济合作。中国应鼓励俄罗斯与朝鲜加强经济合作，并就“萨德”系统和边防问题与俄罗斯展开沟通和协调。
Russia is a key member of ＂Six Party Talks＂ because its national interests are closely connected to the situational changes of the Korean Peninsula. After DPRK＇s fourth and fifth nuclear tests, Russian government firmly opposed DPRK＇s nuclear program. On the other hand, it did not intend to undermine the current development of Russia-DPRK relations. The increasingly isolated po- sition of North Korea in the international community also adds more incentives for Russia to develop its relations with DPRK. Meanwhile, THAAD system has become a new variable affecting Russia-DPRK relations. Russia government jud ges that a ＂hard landing＂ will not take place in Korean Peninsula, and intends to downgrade the tension in the region. Russia＇s current policy is to contact both DPRK and ROK equally so as to keep a balance and maintain its independent position. On the one hand, it responds to DPRK＇s security concern. On the other hand, it takes an effort to improve economic cooperation with ROK at the same time. China should not hold a high expectation on Russia＇s policy towards the Korean Peninsula. China＇s leading role on the Korean Peninsula should be recog nized if any resolution can be found out for this Peninsula. Particularly, it should be encouraged to intensify its economic cooperation with DPRK and expand its communication and coordination with DPRK on the issues related to THAAD system and border problems
作者
徐博
Xu Bo(Associate Professor of Northeast Asian Studies College,University,Postdoctoral Scholar of Research Programs Jointly Conducted by the Jilin University and Political Science Department of University of Iowa（U.S.)
出处
《中国周边外交学刊》
2016年第2期133-145,共13页
Journal of China's Neighboring Diplomacy
