南海问题持续发酵的线索与特征:以2015年国际舆论的角度

The Clues of Events and the Characteristics of the South China Sea Issues： From the Perspective of International Media in 2015

2015年，南海问题的国际舆论围绕中国南海岛礁建设问题和“南海仲裁案”两条线索持续发酵，引发多个舆论爆点，呈现明显的“双线多爆点”结构。这种“双线多爆点”结构一方面适应了国际舆论热点持续有效时间的规律，展示了当前南海问题国际舆论传播的基本形态和特征；另一方面从不同角度、不同时间点上维系了南海问题作为国际舆论热点的较高关注度。这一舆论趋势与美国再平衡亚洲战略对中国南海地缘政治能力的反对和压制有关，与美国以巧实力撬动中国周边国家和中国的稳定关系有关，也与美国以所谓国际法原则确立其亚太国际秩序主导权而刻意塑造中国与国际法秩序的对立形象有关。南海问题无疑会在2016年仍旧成为国际热点问题，而其相关的炒作热点也无疑仍旧围绕几个核心的问题展开。这种持续的热度和核心问题的固定化将为中国在恰当的时候，以恰当的方法，发起全方位的舆论反击战留下机遇。

In 2015, the international media pushed hot debates and discussions on the issues of South China Sea continuously, with a focus on two major clues of developments of situations, namely, China＇s activities of land-filling on the islands of the South China Sea and the arbitration case initiated by the Philip- pines on South China Sea disputes. These two clues ignited a number of hot spots in news and press, forming a structure of ＂double-clue with multiple hot spots＂ On the one hand, this structure was fit for the law of continuous effective time of those hot spots in the international media, and indicated the major forms and characteristics of the international communication of the South China sea issues On the other hand, it maintained a high level of attentions towards these issues and created a strong momentum to propel further deepened discussions and de- bates on the issues related to maritime interests and South China Sea disputes This momentum is influenced by the U.S. strategy of re-pivot to Asia that at- tempts to counter and suppress China＇s geopolitical capacity in this region, and shaped by the U.S. efforts to destabilize China＇s relations with its neighboring countries through the so-called ＂smart power＂ Furthermore, it is also intensifled by the U.S. advocacy of its so-called ＂principles of international law＂, which aims at a consolidation of its leadership in the international order of the A sia-Pacific and a deliberate framing that portraits China as an antagonist to the or- der defined by the international law. Undoubtedly, the South China Sea issues will continue to be hot spots in 2016 and related media hypes will keep focused on several core issues. This continued heat and the trend of fixing the core issues may provide opportunities for us to launch counter-offensive through proper methods. an aU-directional media campaign of