中国周边安全形势评估报告(2014～2015)

An Assessment Report on the Situations of Security in China＇s Neighborhood （2014 -2015）

中国周边地区的安全形势与结构正在经历重要的历史性调整。整体来看，中国周边安全形势总体趋稳，但安全关系和安全结构依然复杂多变，突发性事件仍难避免，风险升级的可能性依然存在。在安全形势的调整与发展中，最重要的特点是中国与周边国家的关系出现了新的磨合与互动，中国塑造安全环境的主动性和能动性显著增强。展望2015年中国周边安全形势的发展，有三大趋势值得密切关注：中国同周边主要大国关系总体向好的趋势有望延续；中国周边的安全热点问题，特别是“两海”问题，将朝着大局趋稳的方向发展，但个别国家如菲律宾等的挑衅行为短期内不会改变；恐怖主义威胁和互联网安全等非传统安全问题仍将处在高风险期，需要各方加强协调与合作，形成治理合力。

The situations and structure of security in China＇s neighbor- hood are going through important historical adjustments. Generally speaking, the overall stability is being maintained in China＇s neighborhood, but the se- curity relations and structure are still complicated and on a process of fluid changes. Therefore, it is difficult to avoid unpredictable and disruptive events and there still exists a possibility of risk escalation. The most important charac- teristic of the current adjustments and development of the security situations is the new adaptations and interactions occurring in China＇s relations with its neighboring countries and the apparent strengthening of China＇s initiative and activeness to shape its security environment. Furthermore, three trends de- serve close attentions when taking a prospect over the development of the se- curity situations in China＇s neighborhood ： （ 1 ） It is likely to sustain the trend of the overall improvement of China＇s relations with major powers in its neighborhood. （2） The hot security issues related to China＇s neighborhood, particularly the issues of ＂ the two seas＂ （ the South and East China Seas） , will develop in the direction of ＂stabilizing the overall situation＂. However, some individual countries, such as the Philippines, will not change its provoc- ative measures in the short term. （3） The non-traditional security issues, such as the issues related to terrorism and internet security, will remain in a period of high risk, so it is necessary to enhance multilateral coordination and cooperation.