对海上丝绸之路倡议的地区回应——出于经济需要、国内问题和地缘政治考量

Regional Responses to the Maritime Silk Road Initiative： The Imperatives of Economics,Domestic Concerns and Geopolitical Calculations

本文回顾了南亚与东南亚国家对＂21世纪海上丝绸之路＂（以下简称＂海上丝路＂）倡议的回应。首先分析了影响这些国家态度的主要因素,包括经济利益、国内政治环境以及地区地缘政治考量。这两个地区的国家在决定如何回应＂海上丝路＂倡议时,都会综合性地考虑上述三个因素。这些国家对＂海上丝路＂计划的反应可分为三种类型：高度积极、积极而有所保留,以及态度中立或者说模棱两可。＂海上丝路＂倡议的成功与否取决于中国了解当地情况的水平,以及在行为上是否灵活变通。

The 21 stCentury M aritime Silk Road initiative（ M SR） has attracted a lot of attention fromforeign governments and research communities.China has exhibited a tremendous amount of enthusiasmfor the implementation of the initiative. While Beijing is prepared to provide abundant resources for the initiative,regional countries＇ attitudes and responses are equally important for the success or failure of the initiative. This paper identifies three major factors that will help influence the reactions of regional states in Southeast Asia and South Asia to China＇s initiative,including the perceived economic benefits fromparticipation in the plan,domestic politics of these states,and the geopolitical calculations of these regional countries. Different countries give different weight to these three factors. As a result,countries in the two regions display different reactions to the M SR. Some are very positive. Some countries are positive but harbors certain reservations. And other countries are passive,if not against,the M SR initiative. It would be wise for Beijing to fully understand the complexities of regional states＇ views of the initiative and adopt flexbile policies in order to ensure a fairly smooth implementation of the M SR initiative.