基于前景理论的货运方式选择

Freight Mode Choice Based on Prospect Theory

货运方式选择是一个多属性决策问题,货主选择货运方式需要考虑的因素较多,本文选取运输成本、运输时间、运输可靠性、安全性和便捷性五个决策准则,考虑到决策者心理因素,即面对收益和损失的不同风险态度,引入前景理论。以决策者预期的期望值作为参考点,将不同数据信息规范化处理,得到初始属性矩阵,再根据各属性值相对参考点的差值,建立益损决策矩阵和前景决策矩阵,然后通过前景理论计算各方案的综合前景值,综合前景值越大,即该方案越优。最后通过一个算例验证模型的正确性和合理性。

Freight mode choice is a multi-attribute decision-making problem. There are many factors for shippers to consider when choosing a reasonable freight mode. Five factors are considered in the paper, including transportation cost, transportation time, transportation reliability, safety and convenience. The prospect theory is introduced to capture the psychological situation of decision makers who hold attitudes towards benefits and losses.The expected value of the decision makers are used as the base and the individual data are normalized to obtain an initial attribute matrix.According to D-value between the base and each attribute, we establish a decision matrix of benefits and losses and a prospect decision matrix.Next, the comprehensive prospect value of each choice is calculated based on prospect theory. The larger the comprehensive value is, the better the scheme is.A numerical example is used to verify the validity and rationality of the model.